Trusting Your Hunches
Some people believe in their hunches and act accordingly. This isn’t always a mistake, because sometimes it’s irrelevant. Other times, acting on your hunches can cost you money. Here is an example:
You have a hunch that red is going to come up on the next spin of the roulette wheel, so you bet on it instead of black. A bet on red has just as good a chance of winning as a bet on black, so this isn’t a mistake. Either bet has a 47.37% probability of winning.
This is a big mistake. In this situation, you should stand because the dealer has good chance of busting a stiff hand here. As long as you don’t bust, you have a good chance of winning this hand. Basic Strategy and the math behind it always trumps your gut feelings or hunches. Players who ignore basic strategy and just bet their hunches lose another 2% or 3% to the casino from each bet than players who stick with basic strategy regardless of their hunches.